Stand By For A Message From The Global Canary In The Coalmine…
At 8:00 p.m. ET, we’ll get South Korea’s July trade report.
Exports are estimated to have climbed 2.1% year-over-year.
The economists at Societe Generale are looking for a trade surplus of around $6 billion “driven by weak imports rather than strong exports.”
They note that any year-over-year growth in exports would be attributable to weakness a year ago.
Economists across Wall Street dub South Korean exports as the global economic canary in the coal mine.
Korean trade data usually comes before the first trading session of the month in Asia, which makes it the first of the world’s major economic indicators to be released.
Since the yen-devaluing era of Abenomics began, however, Korean exports have been more volatile due to currency swings.
“For H2 we also worry about the potential negative impacts of China’s slowdown on South Korea’s exports,” said SocGen. “The US economic recovery would not fully offset the negative impacts from China given Korea’s increasing dependence on China-bound exports.”